Do the right thing at the right season is a great art
Even Though markets will not repeat the same pattern every year, however, this seasonal pattern has been proved valid and adopted by many market participants.
Bitcoin has been in the market for more than a decade. The seasonality of the leading cryptocurrency has become something that investors worth looking at. Data from Sentix and Bloomberg shows that since July 2010, bitcoin has the best average monthly performance in April, May, October, and November. On the other hand, markets were relatively quiet in December, 1Q, and especially during summertime.
Figure 1: BTC Seasonal Performance Pattern Since 07/2010 (Source: Sentix; Bloomberg)
Figure 2: BTC Performance in 2017 (Source: Tradingview)
In contrast, markets were bearish in September, where BTC plummeted from 4900 to as low as 2900 levels in the middle of the month.
Halving State of Mind
Weekend is Quiet Time
Figure 3: Avg. XBTUSD Perp. Volume on BitMEX, 30-Day Average; as of 18-Dec-19 (Source: Skew)
Figure 4: Daily BTC Returns by Weekday; Since November 2014 (Source: Crypodatadownload; Bitcoin Suisse Research)
The firm also performed a weekly dollar-cost averaging strategy analysis, and it shows that Friday would have been the best weekday to invest within the same time frame.
European Afternoon More Busy
Figure 5: Avg. XBTUSD Perp. Hourly Volume on BitMEX (UTC); 30-Day Average; as of 18-Dec-19 (Source: Skew)
Figure 6: OKEx Futures OI. & Volume – Hourly (HKT) (Source: OKEx)