The coming days could be decisive for short-term BTC price implication
Return of the Bulls
CME bitcoin futures has produced a gap down earlier this week. It was located between 7120 to 7240. CME bitcoin futures tend to fill the gaps it produced, and we have seen many similar cases before. For example, the futures created three 3-hour gaps in November as the yellow circles indicated in figure 1, and all these gaps have been filled ultimately. In addition to the oversold condition, we believe that the technical factor was the main driver of the rebound.
Figure 1: CME Bitcoin Futures 3-Hour Chart (Source: Tradingview)
Glass Half Full or Half Empty?
As of 19th December, OKEx BTCUSD Index has a high of 7775.7 and a low of 6433.09, which means that the range so far has reached 1342.61, and that number is still below the average of 2772.326. Since the end of the so-call “Crypto Winter” period, the monthly range of the Index has been around 3000. The current range of 1342.61 indicates that OKEx BTCUSD Index potentially still has room to maneuver further up or down before the year, and the question is in which direction?
You can read more about how to utilize the monthly range numbers here.
Figure 2: OKEx BTCUSD Index Daily Chart (Source: OKEx; Tradingview)
Table 1: OKEx BTCUSD Index Monthly Ranges (Source: OKEx)
Moreover, we noticed that the Crypto Fear & Greed Index remained at a relatively low level after the rebound occurred. The Fear & Greed Index has dropped to 15 on Wednesday and stayed at 21 after the overnight rebound. Although 21 may not be the lowest, still, the Index continues to stay at the “Extreme Fear” stage. The reading indicates that investors could be too worried about the crypto market, and often considered a sign of incoming bullishness.
Figure 3: OKEx BTC Perp. Swaps Funding Rate (Source: Skew; OKEx)
Figure 4: Crypto Fear & Greed Index (Source: alternative.me)
Figure 5: OKEx BTC Long/Short Ratio (Source: OKEx)
Figure 6: CME Bitcoin Futures Total OI (Source: Skew)
Figure 7: Bakkt Bitcoin Futures Total OI (Source: Skew)
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